Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (462 Views)
Date: April 13, 2005 03:07PM
HP,
I think it's pretty obvious you don't understand my betting yet. By now I am pretty sure I'm really testing JB's patience. So this will be the last try.
I am looking for overlays just like everyone else. However, historically when I looked for them in the lower odds categories like
5-2 and lower, I didn't have much success. I bet a lot of money and made nothing. I think that's probably true of a lot of people, they just don't keep good enough records to know it.
When I looked for overlays among longer priced horses, I tended to do much better.
Hence the approximate cutoff of 7-2 (on rare occasions I wil take less).
However, the odds I am willing to accept on any individual horse are 100% correlated to my estimate of the horses's chances.
If I think 10%, I want 12-1.
If I think 20%, I want 5-1.
If I think 30%, I want 7-2.
And so on.
The net of all the horses I bet do not win a particularly high percentage of the time because it is made up of some low percentage horses, but the odds have compensated on an individual basis.