Re: My Closing Argument on the BG (477 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 13, 2005 03:38PM
Class,
I understand perfectly, and you are only making my point, JB's exasperation notwithstanding. Corresponding with you I swear I feel like Albert Einstein.
You wrote,
"However, the odds I am willing to accept on any individual horse are 100% correlated to my estimate of the horses's chances.
1. If I think 10%, I want 12-1.
2. If I think 20%, I want 5-1.
3. If I think 30%, I want 7-2."
When you say this, I believe you.
1. The horse has a 10% chance of winning and you get 12-1. Let's say you are right 10% of the time. Assuming 10 $10 bets and you hit one (10% correct) you are ahead $20. Mazel tov bro.
2. The horse has a 20% chance of winning and you get 5-1. Let's say you are right 20% of the time on these. Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit two (20% correct) you are EVEN.
3. The horse has a 30% chance of winning and you get 7/2. Let's say you are right...I don't know...30% of the time on these (which would make sense given the shorter prices). Assuming you make 10 $10 bets and you hit three (30% correct), guess how you're doing?
You started out saying how you "did not hit a high percentage of your bets?" Based on your posts I believe you! So if you are indeed turning a profit, you must actually be hitting a higher percentage of them than you think, no?
You MUST be hitting MORE than 30% of your 7/2 shots, MORE than 20% of your 5/1 shots, and MORE than 10% of your 12/1 shots. Otherwise you can't turn a profit. Remember Anthony Newley... It's IMPOSSIBLE my friend!
So you are either full of it or you are actually wrong and hitting a fairly HIGH percentage of your bets (more than 10, 20 or 30%, respectively)... Judging by your post, you could probably rattle off just how well you do in each odds bracket (you keep records, right?)...
I think I understand you just fine...
HP