HP,

I don't hit a high percentage because I don't always bet the best horse in the race.

I haven't checked my average price over those years (I still have the data though), but I almost never bet anything less than 7-2. So that should give you some idea.

By positives and negatives, I was referring strictly to some of the subjective things that IMO can't be quantified perfectly.

Here's my exact thinking on the Blue Grass.

I see and use all the same speed figures as everyone else. I can make the same pattern projections.

However....

I don't want to bet a horse whose only big figure came on a wet fast rolled track that might have been carrying speed if he's the favorite or close. That's because I think horses like that tend to underform their figures/odds compared to similar horses that earned their figures under typcial conditions.

I don't want to bet a horse whose only fast route came with a loose lead/slow pace on a "suspect" track, against weak horses as the favorite or close. That's because I know that a lot of horses like that fall apart when they are tested for the first time.

I don't want to bet a highly regarded horse from the Zito barn when his last race was so darn slow - even though I expect better - when he's the favorite or close.

Those are all very good horses. I can see why someone could make a good case for any one of them being the most likely winner.
I just wouldn't bet any of them at short odds because IMHO they are all potentially flawed relative to their figures.

However, I might consider a horse like Bandini even though I am fairly certain he's not the fastest horse, not the most likely winner, and probably doesn't have a very high chance of winning.

The reason I might be willing to do so is because I think I have an excellent guage on his ability. He hasn't been as fast as the others, but he's not that far behind and he earned his figures on legit surfaces against legit quality fields.

I think extremely highly of Pletcher's skill at spotting and improving young horses. If he didn't think this horse had a good shot, he wouldn't be in this race. He would have looked for a softer prep.

I don't think the Florida 3YOs are getting as much credit as they deserve based on how they have performed elsewhere and others have performed when they have shipped into FL.

The only thing between me and a bet, is the price. I am trying to figure out how negative I am about the others and how concerned I am about Bandini missing some training. I'm not sure yet what price will provoke me into making the bet.

At a certain price I will feel that I got compensated for the fact that Bandini is slower coming in because some of the others "may not" be as good as they look.

If I do bet and he finishes 4th/5th etc... I will still feel comfortable with the bet.

If one of the others proves that he really is a superstar and that my concerns were unwarranted, I will still feel comfortable with the bet.

That's an example of how I think - for better or worse!

Now if the track comes up favoring speed tomorrow........ LOL



Post Edited (04-13-05 13:07)